TALLIVOIf You Invested in 1950
A start that ran through six separate falls of more than a fifth and still finished in the top third. The case that surviving crashes matters more than avoiding them.
$10,000 invested in January 1950 would be $3,200,300 today, in 2026 money — 320.03× the original, or 7.83% a year after inflation over 76.5 years. Along the way it fell 51.8% from its peak, bottoming in Mar 2009.
Dividends are reinvested and the figure is adjusted by CPI; before inflation the same run returned 11.65% a year. It excludes fees and taxes and covers US large-cap stocks only.
Where 1950 ranks
Of the 155 years someone could have started in this record, 1950 ranks 50th on real annualised return. The median start year returned 7.19% a year; 1950 returned 7.83%, ahead by 0.64% a year.
A gap that small looks negligible and is not. Over the 77 years since, the difference between this year’s return and the median compounds into a materially different ending balance — which is the case for caring when you start, and also the case for not trying to time it.
The ride, not just the return
7.83% a year is the summary. The experience was a 51.8% fall that bottomed in Mar 2009, and then 4.2 years to climb back to the peak it had before. Anyone who sold at the bottom locked in the loss and never saw the number at the top of this page.
What you would have sat through
6 separate falls of more than 20% since 1950. Each one is a moment somebody sold.
| Peak | Bottom | Fall | Took to fall | Back to peak |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1961 | Jun 1962 | −21.8% | 6 months | 11 months |
| Dec 1968 | Jun 1970 | −31.7% | 18 months | 2.4 years |
| Jan 1973 | Dec 1974 | −50.1% | 23 months | 10.1 years |
| Aug 1987 | Dec 1987 | −26.7% | 4 months | 20 months |
| Aug 2000 | Mar 2009 | −51.8% | 8.6 years | 4.2 years |
| Nov 2021 | Oct 2022 | −24.5% | 11 months | 17 months |
Decade by decade
The 7.83% average is made of 7 very different decades. Real annualised return for each ten years from 1950:
| Decade | Real annualised | $10,000 became |
|---|---|---|
| 1950–1960 | 16.18% | $44,804 |
| 1960–1970 | 5.14% | $16,507 |
| 1970–1980 | -1.16% | $8,899 |
| 1980–1990 | 11.00% | $28,394 |
| 1990–2000 | 14.96% | $40,315 |
| 2000–2010 | -3.10% | $7,299 |
| 2010–2020 | 11.58% | $29,913 |
Best of them: 16.18%. Worst: -3.10%. Anyone who judged the market on a single one of these decades would have drawn the wrong conclusion about the others.
Nominal against real
| Basis | Annualised | $10,000 became |
|---|---|---|
| Real (after inflation) | 7.83% | $3,200,300 |
| Nominal (before inflation) | 11.65% | — |
The real figure is the one worth planning on. To see what inflation did to a fixed sum over the same stretch, measure the purchasing power of $10,000 from 1950 to today on the same CPI series.
Change the assumptions
This page fixes one set of inputs so it can say something specific. For a different amount, a monthly contribution, a different end date or any start month at all, run the backtest with your own figures. To see how 1950 compares with every other starting point rather than just its rank, look at the full distribution of rolling returns by holding period.
Other starting years
See what starting in 1929 returned, or compare it with a 1980 start.
Common questions
What would $10,000 invested in 1950 be worth today?
Was 1950 a good year to start investing?
What was the worst drop for someone who started in 1950?
Does this include dividends and inflation?
S&P Composite total return, dividends reinvested, 1871-01 to 2026-07, deflated by CPI. Before fees and taxes; US large-cap only. Past returns describe what already happened and are not a forecast. Source: Robert J. Shiller, Online Data (shillerdata.com) — S&P Composite, dividends and CPI, monthly from 1871. Estimates for general information only — not financial, tax, or investment advice. Permalinks exist for start years with at least 10 years of data.